Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 2 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
With angular frequency , the periodogram isAt Fourier frequencies it is the squared modulus of the normalized discrete Fourier transform. If a nonzero mean is unknown, subtract the sample mean first.
For a zero-mean stationary process, expanding the square givesUnder absolute summability of the covariances this converges to the spectral density of a stationary process. Thus the periodogram is generally biased at finite , but asymptotically unbiased under this short-memory time series condition.
It is nevertheless not a pointwise estimator with statistical consistency unless it is smoothed. For Gaussian white noise, at a nonzero Fourier frequency other than the Nyquist frequency, the real and imaginary Fourier components are independent normal variables. Exactly,where . The variance does not decrease with . Under usual short-memory time series assumptions the same exponential limit is asymptotic for general processes. Averaging nearby frequencies or using a lag-window estimator reduces variance; a frequency bandwidth tending to zero while times that bandwidth tends to infinity can give statistical consistency. The raw plot remains useful for detecting strong periodic peaks, but increasing the record length alone does not remove its pointwise noise.