Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2014 ib Paper 1 7H ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-06
By the bias-variance decomposition of mean squared error,For , comparison with the unbiased estimator reduces toIts roots are and , soEquality at either endpoint gives the same risk as . At , every risk is zero, so no strict improvement is possible. This illustrates shrinking a sample mean with variance proportional to mean squared: allowing a small bias can reduce variance enough to improve total risk. The best constant is , whose mean squared error is .