Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 38 1 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
In the usual causal stationary convention, a centered autoregressive moving-average model satisfiesSet and . After removal of common factors, the usual causality condition is that all zeros of lie outside the closed unit disk. Then has an absolutely summable causal coefficient sequence, giving a linear-filter representation of in terms of white noise. Invertibility of the moving-average part is a separate issue and is not needed for its covariance spectrum.
White noise has one-sided density . Applying the filtering result, or equating the spectra of the two filtered sides of the defining equation, givesThe moving-average sign agrees with the positive convention used later. More generally, the same quotient applies to a stationary two-sided solution when the reduced denominator has no unit-circle zeros; causality selects the past-dependent realization. This is the spectral density of an ARMA process.