Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 216 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Put , , and . We first obtain a uniform-in- stationary bound, then compare the burned-in trajectory with a stationary one.
For a reversible Markov chain, geometric ergodicity gives an absolute L2 spectral gap of a reversible Markov chain. Thus, for some , the Markov kernel viewed as an operator satisfiesOne can use the rate in the total-variation estimate. To see why, reversibility makes a self-adjoint operator. For bounded mean-zero supported on a set where is bounded,The spectral theorem for normal operators writes the left side as . Any positive spectral mass where would contradict the inequality as . These test functions are dense in : truncate a function and restrict it to , then correct its mean using a bounded function supported on a fixed positive-measure set where is bounded. Hence the spectral restriction extends to the entire mean-zero space.
Let be the stationary chain. For , the stationary covariance bound for reversible Markov chains givesConsequently
The initial law of the burned-in trajectory is . Its total variation distance from is at most . Attaching the same conditional future evolution cannot increase that distance, so the entire length- path laws differ by at most . For either path the sum has . The dual bound for total variation distance gives a difference of at most in the second moments, and at most in the squares of the means. This burn-in total variation comparison yieldsSince , . Dividing by givesThe constant depends on the chain, not on .