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Coherent prograde gas accretion increases the angular momentum of a black hole. For a zero-torque thin disc, the rest mass $d{m}_0$ entering from the innermost stable circular orbit changes the hole by $dM=E_{\mathrm{ISCO}}d{m}_0$ and $dJ={\ell }_{\mathrm{ISCO}}d{m}_0$. Its dimensionless spin obeys $d{a}_{\ast }/d\log M=c{\ell }_{\mathrm{ISCO}}/(GM{E}_{\mathrm{ISCO}})-2a_{\ast }$. Starting from zero spin and neglecting captured radiation, the formal extremal endpoint has $M_f=\sqrt{6}{M}_i$ and requires rest-mass supply approximately $1.8464M_i$. Photon capture leads instead to the Thorne spin limit.

Interpret $\dot{m}$ as the rest-mass supply rate through a coherent disc; the hole's gravitating mass grows more slowly because radiation carries away binding energy. Initially the hole is a Schwarzschild black hole, whose innermost stable circular orbit is at $R_{\ast }=6G{M}_0/c^2$. The relativistic orbital constants there areThey follow by extremizing the timelike geodesic effective potential for a circular orbit and imposing marginal stability. Assume negligible torque inside the inner edge, so the gas carries this specific angular momentum into the hole. Its initial spin-up torque isfor $M_0=10^8{M}_{\odot }$ and $\dot{m}=0.1M_{\odot }\mathrm{y}{\mathrm{r}}^{-1}$. In SI units this is $9.7\times 10^{41}\mathrm{kg}{\mathrm{m}}^2{\mathrm{s}}^{-2}$. A purely Newtonian estimate $\ell \sim \sqrt{G{M}_0{R}_{\ast }}$ gives a similar order of magnitude, but the relativistic value is appropriate at the innermost stable circular orbit.

The maximal Kerr black hole angular momentum at the initial mass is $J_{\max ,0}=G{M}_0^2/c\simeq 8.8\times 10^{64}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{c}{\mathrm{m}}^2{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$. Holding both that mass and the initial torque fixed would giveInitially ${\dot{M}}_{\mathrm{BH}}=E_{\mathrm{ISCO}}\dot{m}\simeq 0.094M_{\odot }\mathrm{y}{\mathrm{r}}^{-1}$, so the corresponding frozen-coefficient estimate of gravitating mass gain is about $2.7\times 10^7{M}_{\odot }$. These are useful initial spin-growth scales, not a self-consistent time and mass increase for reaching extremality: the target angular momentum itself grows as $M^2$, and the inner orbit changes as the spin increases.

A consistent endpoint estimate is obtained from black-hole spin-up by coherent accretion. Let $a_{\ast }=cJ/(G{M}^2)$ and $r=R_{\mathrm{ISCO}}{c}^2/(GM)$, where $M$ is the current mass. On the prograde Kerr black hole inner-orbit branch, $1\le r\le 6$, the orbital constants may be writtenIgnoring photon capture, an accreted rest mass $d{m}_0$ changes the hole by $dM=Ed{m}_0$ and $dJ=\ell d{m}_0$. Differentiating the spin definition givesSubstitution of the orbital constants gives $dr/d\log M=-2r$, henceAt the formal extremal limit $r=1$, the result isFor constant rest-mass supply, use $r=6(M_0/M{)}^2$ to integrate the elapsed time:Thus the idealized coherent-disc endpoint isIf the quoted $0.1M_{\odot }\mathrm{y}{\mathrm{r}}^{-1}$ were instead the actual gravitating mass-growth rate, the corresponding endpoint time would be $\Delta M_{\mathrm{BH}}/{\dot{M}}_{\mathrm{BH}}\simeq 1.45\times 10^9\mathrm{yr}$. The two rate conventions cannot be interchanged.

The exact extremal endpoint is an idealization. Capture of disc photons exerts a counteracting torque and gives the Thorne spin limit, $a_{\ast }\simeq 0.998$, for the standard radiatively efficient thin-disc model. Therefore physical disc accretion approaches a large spin below unity rather than producing an exactly extremal hole. Thorne's original spin-evolution calculation describes that correction. The independently integrated expressions above explain why the frozen-mass estimate is too short for the ideal endpoint.

The qualitative conclusion is robust: a hole that gains most of its mass through a persistent, coherently corotating Shakura--Sunyaev thin disk is expected to have substantial black-hole spin. Very low spins require a different angular-momentum history, such as short episodes with changing orientations, counterrotating accretion, or mergers. Coherent feeding, not merely the existence of a disc during each episode, is the decisive assumption.

The Soltan argument offers a population-level observational test. From the bolometric luminosity function of active galactic nuclei, infer the total energy radiated per comoving volume over cosmic history,Compare it with the increase $\Delta {\rho }_{\mathrm{BH}}$ in supermassive black hole mass density attributed to radiative accretion. For an effective radiative efficiency of black-hole accretion ${\eta }_{\mathrm{eff}}$,In a zero-torque relativistic thin disc, $\eta =1-E_{\mathrm{ISCO}}$ rises from about $0.057$ at zero spin to $0.423$ in the photon-free prograde extremal limit. The measured effective efficiency therefore constrains population spin models under the thin-disc assumption. Soltan's original population argument explains how integrated quasar light constrains accumulated black-hole mass.

This is an accreted-rest-mass-weighted efficiency constraint, not a direct measurement of the arithmetic mean spin of every black hole. Obscured emission, bolometric corrections, seed masses, nonradiative growth, and disc orientation introduce uncertainty, and the efficiency-spin relation is nonlinear. These qualifications are essential when interpreting an inferred average spin for the whole population.