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Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
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Past exam of the short options paper shared by Parts A and B of the physics course of the University of Oxford
/
2019
/
S25
/
3
/
a
/
Solution
2026-10-25
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The
transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
is
κ
≃
Δ
T
/
E
, where
E
is cumulative emitted
carbon dioxide
in
a
stated
mass
unit. Here the unit is
tonnes
of
C
O
2
, rather than
tonnes
of
carbon
. Increasing
concentration
weakens the incremental
radiative forcing
per added atmospheric
tonne
because
forcing
is approximately logarithmic. Over
a
substantial range this is partly offset by
a
weakening of
carbon
sinks and by the changing
ratio
between transient warming and
forcing
as
ocean
heat
uptake evolves. These approximate compensations make warming nearly proportional to cumulative emissions; no exact cancellation follows from the logarithmic
forcing
law
alone. The
approximation
is range- and pathway-dependent, and is not
a
theorem
valid for arbitrary emissions
histories
.
Total
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