Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 218 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Let denote Progabide and placebo; write for age and for baseline count. The fitted Poisson regression specifies independentIts log-likelihood isThe coefficient table in the original PDF, whose TeX transcription is truncated, gives the maximum-likelihood estimatesFor the treatment interaction contrast in a Poisson regression, the baseline slope of the log mean is on placebo and on Progabide. At fixed age and baseline , the fitted drug-to-placebo mean ratio is . Increasing baseline by one multiplies that ratio by . Thus the interaction term describes how the treatment ratio changes with baseline, rather than a uniform additive change in seizure counts. The displayed call makes clear that the source's
summary(model1) line is an object-name typo for the epilepsy fit.