Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 37 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The exponent printed in the original PDF is too strong under the stated increment bound. Take , let equal or with equal probabilities, and set for . This is a martingale with and for . For and ,Thus the printed inequality is false. The intended two-sided Azuma-Hoeffding inequality isHere the are deterministic increment bounds. We prove this corrected assertion from conditional exponential moments.
Let . The martingale property gives . For , convexity of the exponential function gives the secant bound on ,Taking conditional expectation removes the terms containing , soThe last inequality follows term by term from in the power series for and . If the increment is zero and the same bound holds directly. This is the bounded-increment case of the Hoeffding lemma.
Repeated conditioning, without any independence assumption, now givesWrite . If , the Markov inequality gives for ,Minimizing at gives . Apply the same argument to the martingale for the lower tail, and use the union bound to obtain the boxed result. If , all increments vanish almost surely, so the deviation probability is zero for every . This handles the degenerate case without dividing by zero and proves the correct bound in full.