Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 29 1 i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write . For , let be the upcrossing count obtained by successively buying at an observation at or below and selling at an observation at or above , with the first purchase allowed at time zero. The Doob upcrossings lemma for an integrable discrete-time martingale isThe weaker last bound is also the usual Doob upcrossing inequality.
To prove it, hold one unit between each purchase and sale, and zero units otherwise. If records the holding over , the decision is -measurable, with . The resulting martingale transform has gainEach completed upcrossing earns at least . An unfinished holding loses at most . If a purchase occurs at zero, its price is , giving the additional discount , whether that holding has been sold or remains open. If no purchase occurs at zero, this extra term is zero. Therefore, path by path,Taking expectations proves the bound.
The martingale convergence theorem, stated without proof, says that a discrete-time martingale satisfying converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable . In particular every nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite limit. Under uniform integrability, the uniformly integrable martingale convergence theorem additionally gives convergence in L1 and .
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 201 1 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
For a discrete-time martingale and real , let be the upcrossing count: buy on the first observation at or below , sell on the next observation at or above , and repeat up to time , counting only completed pairs. Writing , the Doob upcrossing inequality isThis convention permits the first purchase at time zero. Equivalently, the right side is , because the martingale has constant expected value.
For completeness, let indicate whether the trading rule holds one unit during . This is a predictable process, so the martingale transform has zero expected value. Every completed trade gains at least , and an unfinished trade loses at most . Thus , giving the inequality.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 201 1 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The martingale convergence theorem says that if a discrete-time martingale satisfies , then there is an integrable random variable such thatThe hypothesis does not by itself ensure convergence in L1.
For each pair of rational numbers , the Doob upcrossing inequality gives . The monotone convergence theorem therefore gives a finite expected value for , so this upcrossing count is finite almost surely. There are only countably many such pairs, hence all their upcrossing counts are simultaneously finite outside one event of probability zero.
If , the density of the rational numbers supplies strictly between them, forcing infinitely many upcrossings. Consequently has a limit in the extended real numbers almost surely. By the Fatou lemma,A limit of either or would make this lower limit infinite, so the limit is finite almost surely, and the same inequality proves its integrability.
Upcrossing count 2026-10-05
The upcrossing count counts completed upcrossings by time , allowing the first purchase at time zero. For a martingale, the Doob upcrossing inequality bounds its expected value by .