Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 33 1 d Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
The time is the waiting time for two consecutive successes in independent fair trials. First note its integrability: if any one of the disjoint pairs is , then . Thus .
Let be the expected additional waiting time with no trailing positive step, and let be the expected additional time when the preceding step was positive. Conditioning on the next independent increment givesA negative step returns either state to state ; a positive step moves state to state and completes the pattern from state . Substitution yields , so . The original process starts in state , and thereforeOverlapping pairs are dependent, so regarding each successive pair as a fresh trial of success probability would give the wrong expectation.