Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2018 iii Paper 218 5 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-05
Use the stationary autoregressive process of order oneMultiplication by and expectation, using independence of the innovation from the past, gives the autocovariance equation . With , define the sample autocovariances using the same denominator:Substitution into that equation gives the Yule–Walker estimator for an autoregressive process of order oneThis is exactly the lag-one sample autocorrelation function under the divisor- convention, provided the sample has positive variance. Using different divisors for different lags would change the estimator.