Reference class problem

ID: reference-class-problem

The reference class problem is a concept often discussed in the context of probability, forecasting, and decision-making. It arises when trying to make predictions based on past events by selecting a suitable reference class or category to which a current situation belongs. The problem stems from the challenge of selecting the right reference class, as different choices can lead to different probabilities and conclusions about the likelihood of future events.

New to topics? Read the docs here!