 Absorption-time bound from conditional variance and overshoot

Let a nonnegative martingale start at one, let $T$ be its first zero, and let $T_R$ be its first hit of $[R,\infty )$. Suppose $\mathbb{E}[(M_{n+1}-M_n{)}^2\mid {\mathcal{F}}_n]\ge {\sigma }^2{1}_{\{T>n\}}$ and $M_{T_R}\le \tau R$ on finite hits, for thresholds $R\ge 1$. Then $M_{T\wedge T_R\wedge n}^2-{\sigma }^2(T\wedge T_R\wedge n)$ is a submartingale. The bounded stopped values have mean one, so their second moment is at most $\tau R$. Consequently $\mathbb{E}(T\wedge T_R)\le (\tau R-1)/{\sigma }^2$. For $\tau \ge 1$ this implies the weaker bound ${\tau }^{2}R/{\sigma }^2$. The threshold restriction prevents an impossible overshoot requirement below the starting value.