 Balanced-panel method-of-moments credibility

For independent comparable risks observed over $n\ge 2$ years, estimate the expected process variance $v$ by the average within-risk sample variance. The sample variance $B$ of the risk means estimates $a+v/n$, where $a$ is the variance of hypothetical means. Thus $B-\hat{v}/n$ is unbiased for $a$; truncating at zero produces a practical nonnegative estimate but introduces bias. Use the grand mean for $m$ and plug these estimates into the Bühlmann credibility premium $\hat{Z}{\overline{X}}_s+(1-\hat{Z})\hat{m}$. At least two risks are needed for $B$; a single year cannot estimate within-risk variance this way.