Bernstein bound for bounded-jump martingales

ID: bernstein-bound-for-bounded-jump-martingales

For a compensated jump martingale starting at zero, with jumps bounded in absolute value by and predictable quadratic variation at most on the interval, the displayed maximal bound holds. For , the elementary exponential bound
makes the exponential of minus that multiple of its predictable bracket a nonnegative supermartingale. Stop at the first crossing of and use its mean bound. Taking yields the one-sided bound; apply the same argument to and use the union bound for the displayed two-sided version. The elementary estimate follows from the exponential series and for . If , the compensated martingale is constant and the crossing probability is zero; the parameter choice above is needed only for .

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