Collision probability of two independent categorical draws

ID: collision-probability-of-two-independent-categorical-draws

Suppose two independent random variables have the same categorical distribution, with label probabilities . The disjoint equal-label events give
For the original chosen probabilities , this is , rather than the uniform four-label value . The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives , so uniform probabilities minimize this two-draw collision probability. This pair formula alone does not supply the entire group collision probability for a nonuniform model.

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