 Conditional versus marginal posterior predictive checks

In a hierarchical Bayesian model, replication conditional on fitted observation-level random effects checks the sampling layer. Replication with fresh random effects drawn from their population law also checks the population mean and variation. To assess a dose-response curve, sample the global parameters from their posterior distribution, draw fresh effects for new plates at each existing dose, and compare replicated means, spreads and trend discrepancies with the observed values. Reusing the fitted plate effects can conceal a misspecified mean curve by reproducing deviations those effects already absorbed.