Continuous Bernoulli priors and certainty

ID: continuous-bernoulli-priors-and-certainty

With a uniform prior distribution on a Bernoulli chance , successes yield posterior density . Integration gives next-trial success probability , but the singleton retains probability zero. More generally, ordinary conditioning with a finite integrable likelihood and positive finite normalization constant preserves absolute continuity, so a continuous prior does not acquire a new atom at certainty from a finite sample.

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