Derivative-weighted call delta martingale

ID: derivative-weighted-call-delta-martingale

Suppose is bounded and let , . The Novikov condition makes a strictly positive true martingale. For solving the call delta equation for a driftless local volatility diffusion, the product formula gives
The two drift terms cancel through quadratic covariation. Thus is a local martingale. If it is a true martingale on the closed horizon, its terminal value is , so
The upper bound uses . Equivalently, the option delta is the terminal-exceedance probability under the measure with density .

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