Exponential total progeny tail for bounded subcritical offspring

ID: exponential-total-progeny-tail-for-bounded-subcritical-offspring

If a Galton-Watson process starts from one ancestor and has bounded nonnegative integer offspring with , its total progeny obeys for some and all integers . Explore one individual at a time. The unexplored queue has size until its first hit of zero, whose hitting time is . Hence implies . Boundedness makes finite near zero, with and . Choose with . The exponential Markov inequality gives the desired bound with . The same proof works whenever the offspring law has an exponential moment near zero, even without boundedness.

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