First-passage time ($T_A$)

The first-passage time to a target set $A$ is $T_A=\inf \{t\ge 0:X_t\in A\}$. It is also called a hitting time.

For standard Brownian motion and $a>0$, $T_a=\inf \{t\ge 0:B_t\ge a\}$ is finite almost surely andThe Brownian reflection principle gives this distribution function. The Brownian scaling identity $T_{ca}\stackrel{d}{=}{c}^2{T}_a$ and the Strong Markov property show its probability distribution is a strictly stable distribution with index $1/2$.

For $T_{a,b}=\inf \{s:W_s=a+bs\}$ with $a>0$, exponential tilting of the terminal Brownian value gives $e^{{\theta }^{2}t/2}$ times the barrier-survival probability for Brownian drift $\theta -b$. Thus the moment equals $e^{{\theta }^{2}t/2}[\Phi ((a+(b-\theta )t)/\sqrt{t})-e^{2a(\theta -b)}\Phi ((-a+(b-\theta )t)/\sqrt{t})]$ for every real $\theta$.

The Brownian reflection principle gives $\mathbb{P}({\tau }_x\le t)=\mathbb{P}(|N|\ge x/\sqrt{t})$ for a standard normal random variable $N$. This is the distribution function of $x^2/N^2$. An independent Brownian motion observed at this hitting time has the Cauchy distribution with scale $x$.

For a positive level $a$, this density describes the first-passage time of $B_t+ct$. The Girsanov theorem multiplies the zero-drift density by the stopped likelihood $e^{ca-c^{2}t/2}$. Its total mass is one for nonnegative drift and $e^{2ac}$ for negative drift; the latter has remaining mass at infinite hitting time.

For $a>0$, real $b$ and standard Brownian motion, the first-passage time to a linear boundary hasHere $\Phi$ is the standard normal distribution function. Differentiation gives $a\exp (-(a+bt{)}^2/(2t))/\sqrt{2\pi t^3}$, the drifted Brownian first-passage density. Its Laplace transform is $\exp [-a(b+\sqrt{b^2+2\theta })]$ for $\theta >0$. There is mass $1-e^{-2ab}$ at infinity when $b>0$; for $b\le 0$ the hitting time is finite almost surely.

When $d=\sqrt{c^2+2r}$ is real and nonnegative, the discounted drifted Brownian first-passage density is $e^{a(c-d)}{h}_d(t)$. Integrating yields $e^{a(c-d)}\Phi ((dT-a)/\sqrt{T})+e^{a(c+d)}\Phi ((-a-dT)/\sqrt{T})$. In a Black-Scholes model with $c=(r-{\sigma }^2/2)/\sigma$, the identity $c^2+2r=(r+{\sigma }^2/2{)}^2/{\sigma }^2$ ensures this formula covers every real interest rate.

For $Y_t=y+B_t+at$, $y>0$, and $S=\inf \{t\ge 0:Y_t=0\}$,where $e^{-\lambda \infty }=0$. The diffusion generator is $\frac{1}{2}{\partial }_{yy}+a{\partial }_y$. Its bounded eigenfunction on the positive half-line with boundary value one is $u(y)=\exp [-y(a+\sqrt{a^2+2\lambda })]$, giving the formula through the discounted boundary-hitting representation. The zero-discount limit is the hitting probability $e^{-2y\max (a,0)}$.

For standard Brownian motion, set $H_a=\inf \{t:B_t\ge a\}$ and $T_a=\inf \{t:B_t>a\}$. The Strong Markov property and immediate positive excursions give $T_a=H_a$ almost surely for each fixed $a\ge 0$. However, these level-indexed processes are not indistinguishable stochastic processes. Almost surely the random level $A={\sup }_{t\le 1}{B}_t$ is positive and exceeds $B_1$. It is first attained before time one but is not exceeded until after time one, so $H_A<1<T_A$. The simultaneous-equality event therefore has probability zero. The strict passage process $T_a$ is the right-continuous choice needed for a subordinator.

For standard Brownian motion started at zero, $H_a=\inf \{t\ge 0:B_t\ge a\}$ is finite almost surely for $a\ge 0$ andThe Brownian reflection principle proves finiteness. For $u\ge 0$, the Exponential martingale for Brownian motion stopped at $H_a\wedge t$ is bounded by $e^{ua}$. The dominated convergence theorem gives $\mathbb{E}{e}^{ua-u^2{H}_a/2}=1$, and taking $u=\sqrt{2\lambda }$ gives the transform.

When a first-passage time $\tau$ has an absolutely continuous distribution, its density is $f_{\tau }(t)=-S^{\prime }(t)$, where $S(t)=\mathbb{P}(\tau >t)$ is its survival function. In a continuous-time Markov chain, this density is the total probability flux from surviving states into the absorbing set.

For a diffusion with backward generator $L$, the mean first-passage time satisfies $L\tau =-1$ in the interior, with the backward forms of the process's boundary conditions.

The waiting time for a specified directed edge to be traversed differs from the waiting time to visit its terminal state. First-step equations include no continuation term when the designated transition succeeds, but still count that last step. They can also be derived by augmenting the chain with an absorbing success state.

The survival probability is $Q(x,t)={\mathbb{P}}_x(T_A>t)$. When absorption eventually occurs,