First-cousin identity-by-descent probabilities
ID: first-cousin-identity-by-descent-probabilities
For first cousins in an otherwise outbred pedigree, compare the copies transmitted from their related parents, who are full siblings. These transmissions trace to the same shared grandparent with probability and then to the same homologous copy of that grandparent with probability , giving . The unrelated parental contributions cannot match, so two shared copies have probability zero. Selecting one random copy from each cousin chooses those two potentially shared copies with probability , giving kinship coefficient .
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