Gaussian autoregressive kernel variance correction
ID: gaussian-autoregressive-kernel-variance-correction
For a stationary autoregressive process of order one with unit-variance normal distribution marginals and fixed , the Gaussian kernel covariance correction at lag has the displayed form. The difference of two observations has variance , and their characteristic functions reduce the Fourier integral to the difference of two Gaussian integrals. The mean value theorem gives , uniformly over . Thus the integrated variance differs from its independent-sample counterpart by . The marginal bias is unchanged, so this dependence does not alter the leading optimal bandwidth or the mean integrated squared error for a second-order density kernel.
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