 Hypergeometric allocation of exchangeable Bernoulli counts

Conditional on the pooled number $s$ of successes in $m+n$ exchangeable random variables that are binary, all placements of those successes are equally likely under a common success-chance mixture. The count in a chosen batch of size $n$ therefore has a hypergeometric distribution, with mass $\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{s}{y}\right)\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m+n-s}{n-y}\right)/\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{m+n}{n}\right)$. Under the uniform-count predictive property, $s$ is uniform on $0,\dots ,m+n$. Dividing the joint pooled-and-batch probability by the first batch's uniform marginal gives the posterior predictive distribution, with factor $(m+1)/(m+n+1)$. Substituting $s=x+y$ in the hypergeometric expression does not give a single normalized hypergeometric mass as $y$ varies, since its population success total then varies too.