Marginal posterior weights of a Poisson count change point
ID: marginal-posterior-weights-of-a-poisson-count-change-point
Integrating the two rates out of the Poisson count change-point model with gamma priors gives these weights up to a common factor, by the defining Gamma function integral. Normalizing across the finitely many possible indices gives the exact marginal posterior distribution of , providing a check on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates. One can also draw from these weights and then draw both rates from their conditional Gamma distributions, producing independent exact joint posterior samples.
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