One Brownian factor does not imply a Markov short rate

ID: one-brownian-factor-does-not-imply-a-markov-short-rate

For the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model with , the risk-neutral drift is . Its short rate is . The centered integrated Brownian component is not Markov: its past reveals its derivative , which affects the conditional mean of future increments, whereas its current integral does not determine . Indeed the conditional variance of given the current integral is . A one-dimensional driving noise therefore does not force a one-dimensional Markov state.

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