Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-digital-social-research-statistics-core-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/3/solution

The displayed percentages use row denominators. The relevant comparison is therefore the conditional probability of each response within each recorded gender group, rather than the gender composition within a response category.
For the male group, strongly agree and agree. For the female group, the corresponding percentages are and . Combining the two agreement categories gives
The female group has more neutral responses, versus , and a higher combined disagreement percentage, versus . Thus the observed distributions differ in more than a single cell.
The Pearson chi-squared test assesses the null hypothesis of independence in the complete contingency table. Under that null, the expected frequency in a cell is its row total times its column total divided by 2,135. Recalculation gives
The reported p-value, approximately , gives very strong evidence against independence under the test's sampling assumptions. The minimum expected frequency is about , so sparse expected cells are not a problem here. The test concerns the full five-category distribution, not just the combined agreement comparison.
Cramér's V summarizes the magnitude without imposing an ordering on the gender labels:
The small p-value does not imply a nearly deterministic relationship. For example, the column-dependent Goodman and Kruskal's lambda is only about : choosing the modal response separately within the two groups reduces prediction errors from 1,546 to 1,506, a relative reduction of .
The positive Goodman and Kruskal's gamma must be interpreted using the table's chosen ordering. The agreement categories run toward less willingness, and gender has no intrinsic ordinal direction. A sign attached to an arbitrary group coding cannot replace the substantive comparison of conditional probabilities.
The NaN displayed for the likelihood-ratio calculation is not a valid p-value and is not evidence of no association. The Pearson chi-squared statistic can be independently recomputed from the positive cell counts. None of these calculations identifies a causal effect; the table has not controlled for income or other possible confounders.

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