Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-martingales-and-financial-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2010/a/3/b/i/solution
Past exam of the martingales and financial mathematics course of the University of Oxford 2010 A 3 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
The printed update needs a one-step index correction to match its filtration: the draw for the transition from to must be the fresh variable . Also the trivial initial sigma-algebra is , rather than the printed . With literal , the next increment is already known at time , so ; the nontrivial update differs from . Thus the stated martingale claim is false with that indexing. The following uses the standard Pólya urn described in words.
Put , so the total count is . Conditional on , the next blue indicator has expectation . HenceAdaptedness and integrability follow from the recursive construction and . Thus is a bounded martingale. The martingale convergence theorem gives an almost-sure limit . Boundedness and the dominated convergence theorem then give , establishing convergence in .
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