Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-martingales-and-financial-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2010/a/3/b/i/solution

The printed update needs a one-step index correction to match its filtration: the draw for the transition from to must be the fresh variable . Also the trivial initial sigma-algebra is , rather than the printed . With literal , the next increment is already known at time , so ; the nontrivial update differs from . Thus the stated martingale claim is false with that indexing. The following uses the standard Pólya urn described in words.
Put , so the total count is . Conditional on , the next blue indicator has expectation . Hence
Adaptedness and integrability follow from the recursive construction and . Thus is a bounded martingale. The martingale convergence theorem gives an almost-sure limit . Boundedness and the dominated convergence theorem then give , establishing convergence in .

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