Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematical-and-computational-biology-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2024/paper-1/c5/a/solution

A phylogenetic epoch is a time interval between successive branching events during which the number of ancestral branches is constant. Read backward from the four sampled leaves: there are four branches until the first merger, then three until the next, then two until their common root. Write the random durations as , with expected values .
The original solution diagram below places time horizontally and labels each branch by its number of descendant leaves. Type A is the pectinate topology; type B is the balanced topology. The coloured time strips identify the three phylogenetic epochs; their drawn widths are schematic, not estimated times.
Figure 1.
Epochs and descendant counts for four sampled lineages
. Time runs from the common root to the sampled leaves. The two panels distinguish the three-plus-one and two-plus-two root splits; numbers on branches count sampled descendants. Details.

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