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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2001/ib/paper-2/12d/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 ib Paper 2 12D Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
For a generalized likelihood-ratio test, maximize the likelihood separately over the null parameter space and the unrestricted space. Define , and reject for small , equivalently large . Choose the rejection threshold to achieve the desired null significance level, using an exact distribution when available or a justified asymptotic calibration; nuisance parameters are fitted under the respective restrictions.
For independent Poisson distributions, the likelihood is . The unrestricted maximizers are , allowing zero as a boundary value. Under the common-mean null, maximizing gives . The exponential and factorial factors cancel in the ratio, yieldingIf all counts are zero, set and ; no division by is then needed.
For positive , put , so . Expanding the logarithm givesConsequentlyIt is the quadratic Pearson approximation to the Poisson deviance. The approximated statistic is the logarithmic ratio , not the bounded raw ratio .
Under the null in the large-common-count regime, this statistic has an approximate chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom: fitting the common mean removes one independent residual direction. For , use six degrees of freedom. At , the upper-tail probability in that approximation isThus reject the equal-mean null at conventional 5% or 1% significance levels, provided the expected counts justify the chi-square approximation. No particular significance level or common count was supplied, so the numerical decision is stated with those assumptions.
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