Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-40/2/a/ii/solution

Write and . If the constants needed to evaluate are unavailable, use the self-normalized importance sampling estimator
The unknown common factor cancels. Under full target probability support and integrability, the numerator and denominator sample means converge to and , respectively, whose ratio is . The same construction applies if only one normalization is unknown by taking the other probability density function already normalized. Sampling from itself is assumed available, even when its normalization is not explicitly known.
This ratio estimator is generally biased at finite , unlike the ordinary normalized-weight estimator. Also, its variance is not the formula in the next part: that formula concerns the ordinary unbiased estimator. Full probability support for is needed here because the denominator estimates the entire target normalizing integral, not just the probability support of .

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