Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-40/2/a/iv/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 40 2 a iv Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Put , with . The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality applied to and givesEquality holds exactly when is proportional to on the contributing probability support. Therefore the minimum-variance importance distribution isIf has one sign, and the ideal proposal gives zero variance. Its normalization or exact sampling may nevertheless be impractical. If , the integrand vanishes almost everywhere and the estimator is identically zero.
The minimizing probability density function may vanish where even though there. This is valid for the ordinary estimator, which needs probability support only for its integrand. If one insists on exactly the same positive probability support as , the bound is instead an infimum whenever this vanishing occurs, approached by as : because , the second moment lies between and , proving convergence to the bound.
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