Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2003/iii/paper-40/3/i/1/solution

Let be the alternative death probability. The odds ratio specifies
Assume and . For observed batch count , the common combinatorial factor in the two binomial likelihoods cancels, giving the CUSUM increment
Therefore
For large death counts add positive evidence of deterioration; for unusually small death counts add evidence for improvement. The score has nonpositive expectation under the null and nonnegative expectation under the specified alternative, as follows from the nonnegativity of Kullback-Leibler divergence. Independent, nonoverlapping batches avoid counting the same patient's outcome repeatedly.

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