Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-28/3/b/solution

Set . Since each is -measurable, the event
is in , so is a stopping time. The stopped predictable budget for adapted increments is , for .
If , the sum before the overshooting increment is . If , the sum through time is at most , and in particular . Thus
The process is adapted, and boundedness gives integrability even when the increments have no finite expectations. Directly from the one-step-lagged sum,
This decrement is -measurable, and . Therefore
Hence is a nonnegative supermartingale; in fact its paths are nonincreasing. At time zero one may set and ; then too. Stopping the sum including would lose nonnegativity, which is why the shifted definition of matters.

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