Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-39/1/iv/solution

Conditioning on the epoch length gives the probability generating function
The Laplace transform of an exponential distribution then yields
This is the geometric mutation count in a coalescent epoch. With the zero-based geometric distribution convention,
At , this reduces to almost surely.

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