Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-39/3/a/solution

Only the copies inherited through the two related parents can share recent identity by descent; the other parental contributions come from unrelated founders in a pedigree. The related parents are full siblings. Their transmitted copies trace to the same shared grandparent with probability , and then to the same copy of that grandparent with probability . Thus the first-cousin identity-by-descent probabilities are
To compute the kinship coefficient, one random copy from each cousin selects those potentially shared contributions with probability . Hence

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