Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-39/4/v/solution

Let . Among the ten complete trios, six have two heterozygous parents: three have child , two have child and one has child . Their conditional likelihood contribution is
Two more trios have a heterozygous parent and a parent, with child in each; they contribute . The remaining two parent pairs can produce only child , so their conditional probabilities are one. Multiplying gives
The factor does not depend on the genotype relative risks, so the conventional proportional likelihood function is
This is the expression in the original PDF, up to the parameter-independent constant. Its last denominator is ; the converted TeX's is a transcription error. The factor in the exact probability comes from the two heterozygous children of two heterozygous parents, each of which has two labelled transmission routes.

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