Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-40/2/a/solution

Difference the local-level state-space model to eliminate its latent level:
Independence and Gaussianity give a stationary Gaussian process with
For , let
These satisfy and . Therefore has the covariance of the moving-average model , where is Gaussian white noise of variance . This is an actual representation, not just covariance matching: define . The convergent inverse filter has constant spectral density , so its Gaussian coordinates are independent, and multiplication by recovers .
Thus
This is the formal ARMA equation with autoregressive coefficient one. Its unit root means that the levels are generally not stationary: if the initial state has finite variance and is independent of future noises, . In stationary-model terminology the correct classification is ARIMA(0,1,1). The requested ARMA description must therefore allow a unit-root equation.
When , the differences are just ; when and , they are , a noninvertible MA(1) with coefficient . If both variances vanish, the model is deterministic apart from a possible initial random level. These limits explain the qualifications on the invertible representation above.

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