Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2005/ib/paper-1/18d/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 ib Paper 1 18D Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A simple hypothesis specifies the entire probability distribution. A critical region is the set of observations for which the null hypothesis is rejected. The size of a statistical test is , which reduces to for a simple hypothesis. The power function is as a function of the true parameter or distribution. At a specified alternative, the Type II error probability is , the chance of failing to reject a false null hypothesis. The Type I error probability is the corresponding rejection probability under the null hypothesis.
The Neyman-Pearson lemma says that, for two simple hypotheses, a test rejecting where , accepting where , and if necessary randomizing on equality to achieve prescribed size , has maximal statistical power among tests of size at most . Conversely a most powerful test can be taken in this likelihood ratio form, up to equality sets and null sets.
Here the likelihood ratio for isIts value is infinite at , which has probability zero under both continuous distributions. Large likelihood ratios correspond to small . Thus the best critical region is , whereThere is no boundary randomization to worry about. The complete answer is
For the minimum sum of errors in a simple hypothesis test, write the error sum as . At each observation its smaller contribution is obtained by rejecting exactly where . This proves optimality over all tests, including randomized ones, rather than just optimizing within an assumed family. Here it gives , and thereforeThe minimum error sum is . This criterion weights the two error probabilities equally; it does not impose a conventional significance level.
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