Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2005/ii/paper-4/26i/a/solution

The embedded birth-death chain has upward probability and downward probability . To calculate a return probability, solve the harmonic difference equation on with boundary values one at zero and zero at . Successive differences have ratio , so their weights are
Their total infinite sum is . Letting gives the probability of ever hitting zero from :
In particular the chain leaves zero to one and returns with probability , so it is transient. This finite-interval calculation selects the minimal nonnegative hitting-probability solution, rather than merely observing that is harmonic.
The continuous-time chain has the same embedded transitions and constant total exit rate , so it is nonexplosive and has exactly the same return events. It too is transient, neither positive recurrent nor null recurrent.

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