Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2005/iii/paper-42/5/solution

Let . Under the symmetric continuous null hypothesis, positive and negative signs have probability and zeros have probability zero. For the sign test, take and reject for small values: under the null. Choose with ; randomization at the next value attains exact size if desired. The lower tail is appropriate for .
For the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, rank increasingly and put . Continuous observations have no absolute-value ties almost surely. Conditional on the absolute values, the signs are independent fair signs because symmetry makes the sign independent of magnitude. Hence has the distribution of for independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter . Again reject in the lower tail, using this exact subset-sum distribution or a normal approximation. Independence gives the requested null moments:
For a symmetric kernel of fixed order , a one-sample U-statistic is . State the U-statistic central limit theorem: if , , and , then . The nondegeneracy condition is important.
For , its order-two U-statistic satisfies the exact Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic identity
To prove it, in an unordered pair the sign of the sum is the sign of whichever observation has larger absolute value. Counting the pairs for which a positive observation is larger contributes its rank minus one; its own positive-sign indicator supplies the remaining one.
Write for the distribution function of under the null. Symmetry gives and
The probability integral transform makes uniform on , so . Therefore . The centred is and is negligible on the scale of . Combining the exact decomposition and its mean gives
The lower-tail approximate level- rejection rule compares this standardized statistic with ; a half-unit continuity correction can refine discrete-tail calculations.

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