Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2005/iii/paper-44/1/c/solution

For an exponential distribution of rate , the probability density function and survivor function are and . Set
where is the observed event count and is total person-time at risk. The log-likelihood, up to a constant, becomes
When and , its score function is , which vanishes at
Its second derivative is negative, so this is the unique maximum-likelihood estimator. This is exponential-rate estimation from censored exposure: the estimate is observed events divided by all observed exposure, including exposure from right-censored individuals.
If and , decreases strictly. There is no maximizer in the open parameter space ; its supremum occurs as , or the extended boundary estimate is if a zero rate is permitted. The formula should not be interpreted as an interior regular fit in this case.

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