Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/ib/paper-2/20c/a/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ib Paper 2 20C a Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Until the first visit to zero, the positive-side chain is a nearest-neighbour random walk with upward probability and downward probability . For an integer , let , . The Markov property givesThe characteristic roots of this recurrence are and . Solving its two boundary equations gives the biased gambler's ruin probabilityA finite path that reaches zero has a finite maximum before doing so, and is counted by for every sufficiently large . Conversely each such event implies a visit to zero. Therefore these events increase to , and continuity of probability givesMore generally the hitting probability from is . The finite-boundary derivation avoids choosing an unjustified solution of the infinite recurrence.
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