Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/ib/paper-3/8c/a/solution

Under the null hypothesis the three preference probabilities for girls are each . Conditional on their total of sixty, the counts have a multinomial distribution, giving expected counts . The Pearson chi-squared goodness-of-fit test statistic is
No probabilities have been fitted, so the asymptotic null distribution is chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom. All expected counts are comfortably large for this approximation. For two degrees of freedom its upper-tail probability is , so
At the conventional five-percent or one-percent significance level, reject equal attractiveness: there is substantial evidence against the null distribution. No level was specified, so reporting the p-value makes the decision rule explicit. The test assumes independent responses and a sampling interpretation appropriate to the children surveyed.

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