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ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/iii/paper-44/3/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 44 3 Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
A frailty model represents unobserved individual heterogeneity by a random effect in the hazard function. In a proportional frailty model, an individual with frailty random variable has hazard . The normalization identifies the scale of the baseline hazard: without it, multiplying all frailties by a constant and dividing by that constant would leave all individual hazards unchanged.
Let . Conditional survival follows by integrating the hazard function:Taking the expectation over the frailty law yieldsThis is the Laplace transform of the frailty density evaluated at the cumulative hazard. More generally, the same calculation integrates against a probability measure, allowing atoms. It averages conditional survival rather than substituting into its exponent. Indeed, the frailty distribution among survivors is proportional to , giving population hazardSurvival progressively selects smaller frailties, so the population hazard need not be the baseline or even retain the individual's proportional structure.
For the cure model, first take . The necessary mean-one frailty law and baseline hazard areThen . A cured person's conditional hazard is zero, while a susceptible person's conditional hazard is . Taking to be zero or one while leaving would instead have mean frailty and violate the required normalization.
The frailty law is the measurewhere the terms are Dirac measures. This is not an ordinary Lebesgue density; the cure construction requires permitting a discrete frailty law. Its Laplace transform isWriting , we have , and thereforeIf , the susceptible class eventually experiences the event and . If , the limiting survival is larger than because some susceptible subjects also never experience the event. At , everyone is cured: set and, for example, to retain mean one, giving without using the singular formula .
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