Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/iii/paper-45/4/c/solution

Assume , , a proper prior density supported on nonnegative mutation rates, and independence of the mutation-rate prior from the neutral genealogy. Put
By Bayes' theorem, the joint posterior is
The normalizing constant is the prior predictive probability and must be positive. For , interpret the factor as 1 even at zero. If , there are no segregating sites: surely, so that case supplies no information about .

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