Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2007/iii/paper-46/2/a/solution

Use equal allocation and a conventional two-sided 5% comparison of independent proportions. The assumed risks are and , giving target difference . Put and let be the number per arm.
The null critical difference is approximately . Under the alternative, the difference has standard deviation . For 80% statistical power, the target difference must exceed the critical difference by alternative standard deviations. Solving gives the sample size for comparing two proportions
This is about per arm, or altogether. Rounding for planning:
The rare-event Poisson approximation gives a similar answer. This assumes the stated baseline risk applies, no endpoint loss, and no attenuation by treatment contamination. The two-sided convention is explicit: a one-sided 5% test would require fewer participants.

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