Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/ia/paper-2/12f/solution

Use the positive-support convention for the geometric distribution and put . Differentiating the convergent geometric series gives
Consequently
Subtracting the square of the expectation from the second moment yields
For the die, this is the coupon collector problem. When scores are still missing, let count rolls up to and including the next newly observed score. Every fresh roll has success probability , so has a geometric distribution of parameter . These six successive waiting times are independent: conditional on the entire past at the start of a stage, its waiting-time distribution depends only on the number , not on the identities of the missing scores. Iterated conditioning therefore factors their joint distribution. The total number of rolls is .
Using linearity of expectation gives
Using variance additivity for independent random variables, or the coupon collector waiting-time variance formula just derived by this decomposition, gives
Hence the requested standard deviation is
The hint rounds the sum of squares from to ; using that rounded value gives , consistent at the precision of the hint. The exact computation preserves the slightly more precise value above.

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