Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-44/1/a/solution

Let the prior odds be , so . The Type I error gives , while the statistical power gives . By Bayes' theorem,
This is a posterior probability of the null, not the false-positive probability conditional on the null. The distinction is the base-rate effect in a positive study.

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