Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2008/iii/paper-44/1/i/solution

Consistent independent replications should strengthen confidence; contradictory results can weaken it. The change depends on the actual evidence. If of studies are positive and all labels are available, the posterior odds are
For the normal model, retaining the full independent statistics instead gives
Each study multiplies the existing odds by its own Bayes factor. Reading a complete synthesis is therefore different from learning only that somebody obtained a positive result. Publication bias, dependence between studies and changes in study design must be accounted for before applying the independent-product formula.

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